To hear it from the mainstream media and all of their favorite polls, you’d have to believe that the days of Donald Trump’s presidency are short, indeed. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is currently 10 points behind Biden if you take all of the biggest polls and average them together. FiveThirtyEight has Biden winning 85% of their theoretical matchups. The media is telling us, every day and in every way, that Trump is about to lose – and lose massively. Politico put the finishing touches on this narrative this weekend when they reported that Republicans are starting to peel away from the president, so confident they are about his impending loss.
Well, maybe it’s the fact that we went through all of this once before in 2016.
Maybe it’s the fact that the media has lied so brazenly and consistently about the “peaceful protests” we’ve seen around the country since May.
Perhaps it’s because the media went to great lengths to smear a good man in Brett Kavanaugh and because they are using a similar playbook to ruin Amy Coney Barrett.
Or, you know, maybe it’s because of the Russia hoax and its sequel, the impeachment embarrassment.
Whatever the reason, though, it’s clear that most Americans are not buying into the narrative that Trump is going to lose to Biden on November 3rd.
From The Spectator:
Survey after survey has found that, regardless of which candidate they support, a majority of respondents predict a Trump victory. Yet another confirmation of this phenomenon is available in a recent Gallup poll.
According to the Gallup survey, “56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win.” This includes 90 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of independents, and 24 percent of Democrats. This is not the first time Gallup has polled voter expectations: The polling firm asked Americans for their predictions in every election year from 1996 through 2012: “In each of these polls, Americans accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote.” This is a far higher accuracy rate than many pollsters can claim, and it obviously raises the following question: “What does the general public know that the pollsters don’t?”
Very, very interesting. Almost every poll out there has more Americans preferring Biden. And yet, when asked to predict the election, voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump is going to win a second term. Is this a reflection of the public’s (lack of) trust in the American news media? Is it a consequence of the polls being so wrong in 2016? Or is it just that people are looking around at their neighbors, seeing a decided lack of Biden signs, and coming to the obvious conclusion?
In less than a month, all the guessing will be over. In the meantime, more than half of Americans are pretty sure that Trump is a long, long way from finished.