For as much talk as there’s been about Joe Biden being out of touch with the modern Democratic Party, the latest polls indicate that, if anything, it’s the rest of the party that’s out of touch. Biden’s doing just fine. Indeed, according to a new poll from Fox News, he’s absolutely crushing his competition. Despite widespread assumptions that he was knocked silly in the last debate by Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden is still the Democratic frontrunner…and it’s not really even close.
From Fox News:
The former vice president captures 33 percent support among Democratic primary voters (up one point since June). That’s more than double any of the second-tier competitors, which includes Bernie Sanders at 15 percent (+2), Elizabeth Warren at 12 percent (+3) and Kamala Harris at 10 percent (+2).
Another six candidates receive at least two percent support: Pete Buttigieg (5 percent), Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang (3 percent a piece), and Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, and Beto O’Rourke (each at 2 percent). All others receive one percent or less.
Having the most voters in nearly two decades feeling positive about the economy and 52 percent approving of his job on the economy should position President Trump well to win re-election.
However, the exact same number, 33 percent, think economic conditions will get better whether Trump gets re-elected or a Democrat is elected. A touch more think the economy will get worse if Trump wins (39 percent) than if a Democrat wins (36 percent).
That ambivalence about the economy contributes to Trump’s support staying between 39-42 percent in hypothetical 2020 presidential match-ups.
People like to see the name in the headline – Fox News – and dismiss this as some kind of biased polling sample, but the network actually employs both a Republican (Daron Shaw) and a Democrat (Chris Anderson) to conduct their surveys. They are aimed at bringing the public an accurate picture of the electorate, which is more than many other, widely-disseminated polls can claim.
“When the economy is good, incumbents typically have the wind at their back,” Shaw said of the president’s re-election chances. “The president has an obvious target group — the 10 percent who approve of his handling of the economy, but aren’t voting for him.”
Trump is not doing well in head-to-head matchups with Biden and Sanders, but he is out front of everyone else in the Democratic field. Of course, the general election is a long way away, and the rest of the Democrats will have a long time to chip away at Biden’s shell of armor. That’s not even getting into the many pitfalls that Biden could fall victim to – gaffes, flip-flops, racially insensitive remarks, sexual harassment, and lurching too far to the left being among the most likely.
Right now, though, the smart money is on a Trump vs. Biden general election. Frankly, we feel pretty good about our chances.