Moody’s Analytics has developed a highly accurate model for our presidential elections. Indeed, they’ve only gotten a single election wrong in the last 40 years, and it just happened to be the one everyone else got wrong: The one in 2016. Relying on low gas prices and Obama’s approval ratings to mold their predictions in that case, Moody’s came up short for the first time by predicting that Hillary Clinton would take the White House. But though they turned out to be wrong in that instance, there are good reasons to believe that they won’t be still time. And this time, they see the economic field clearly pointing towards Trump’s reelection.
According to their analysis, Trump will come out on top next November with 332 electoral votes if turnout falls in line with historical averages.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” the authors said. “It’s about turnout.”
That’s a big “if,” unfortunately. The 2018 midterms and the general mood of the left indicates that 2020 will be anything but a low-turnout year. Still, as Moody’s points out, their prediction doesn’t rely solely on Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm. He may not improve on his 2016 win the way they are predicting, but he’s still got plenty of room for maintaining an electoral college lead on the Democrats. Plus, there are strong indications that, even though Democratic enthusiasm will be high, Trump’s supporters are poised to come out in force as well.
How much does all of this mean, this far out from the election? Probably not much, but it is yet another electoral model predicting victory for Trump next year. So far, every one that we’ve seen has done just that. You don’t read much about these models in the media, and that’s because they like to tout their Democrat-weighted polls instead. In any event, a year is a long time, and any number of things could happen between now and then: The economy could crash, we could get involved in an ill-advised war, the Democrats could make Elizabeth Warren their nominee. There’s no telling.
But right now, according to Moody’s election model, the economy, and GOP fundraising numbers, things are looking pretty good. Let’s hope they stay that way.