Someone is throwing a wrench into the gears of the Democrats’ strategy to create a monolithic class of people-of-color juxtaposed to white Americans –conservative white Republicans, that is. It is at the foundation of the Democrats’ open borders, sanctuary cities and voting rights for non-citizens policies. They believe those millions of folks who cross the border will be overwhelmingly Democrat voters – even some illegal voters.
In past commentaries, I have suggested that Democrats may be in for a major surprise – based on my belief — and some evidence – that the donkey Party’s lock on the Spanish-speaking populace may not be as firm as they believe. (By the way, I think the same of black voters, too.)
We have seen the initial vibrations of a possible major shift in the political tectonic plates on this issue of historic minority voting patterns. Democrats– and especially the progressive wing — have been confused and anxious by the fact that Trump did better with Hispanics in 2020 – and seems to have increasing popularity in recent polls. But it is even more true of the Republican Party in general. Democrat pollster John Anzalone has now declared that Latino voters are “a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for.”
When presented with a re-run of the 2020 election – Biden versus Trump – they split evenly, with 44 percent for Biden and 43 percent for Trump. In the actual election, Biden carried 63 percent of Hispanics – with Trump garnering approximately 30 percent. And even that was better than past Republican presidents did since George W. Bush.
Republicans have always done well among Cubans, but the new shift crosses the entire Hispanic population. There is a gender gap, however, that reflects the gender gap among whites and blacks. Hispanic men would give strong support to Trump for a second term, while Hispanic women would stick with Biden. The men give Trump a 17-point advantage for managing the economy – the number one issue – while the women give Biden a 10-point advantage.
While a great deal of political and media attention is focused on black issues, Hispanics are the second largest population demographic – approximately 25 percent of the population compared to 14 percent for blacks.
We should not forget that prior to Trump and his chaotic and pugnacious personality, Republicans were riding the tide of political dominance in the United States. They had two-thirds of the governors and state legislators, the Senate, the House – and were on a trajectory to take the White House in 2016. Some pundits even wondered if the Democrats could survive as a national party as opposed to a bicoastal regional or urban party. Unfortunately, Trump changed that trajectory.
However … the foundation for Republican support may still be holding. The GOP did well in 2020 – other than Trump. Did very well in 2021 – and are teed up to do very well in 2022. This could be the restoration of the pre-Trump pro-GOP era – and Hispanic votecould be a large part of that.
So, there ‘tis.